Daily news letter                                                                                                                            December 02, 2004

Crude eases on higher US stockpiles

Crude oil future prices, on Comex division of New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) recorded their single largest drop in a trading session on Wednesday December 1, 2004.

IPE Brent crude futures for January delivery lost US$3.20 to US$42.31 a barrel by the end of trading in London. January Nymex WTI lost US$3.64 to US$45.49 a barrel. Petroleum products experienced sharp declines with January Nymex gasoline futures down by 8.34 cents, to US$1.2012 a gallon and January Nymex heating oil futures down by 8.90 cents to US$1.3293 a gallon.

The Energy Information Administration, part of the US Department of Energy, report revealed larger than expected distillate stockpiles. As per the report, diesel and heating oil, rose by 2.3m barrels in the week to November 26; gasoline inventories gained 3m barrels; and crude stockpiles were 900,000 barrels.

Gold topped US$456 an ounce

The continued decline in US dollar against euro pushed gold to higher levels, this time the level not seen since 16-1/4 years on Comex division on New York Mercantile Exchange. The Gold topped US$456 an ounce. On the London Bullion Exchange, the gold moved within US$1 of its 16-year high of US$455 a troy ounce as the euro reached a further record high against the dollar. Gold ended London trade at US$453.40/US$454.15, compared with the late quote of US$450.50/US$451.25 in New York on Tuesday.

In the domestic bullion markets, the yellow metal continued to slide further on weak buying support. Gold standard Rs35 lower at Rs6,630 per 10 gm.

Silver quotes above US$8 an ounce

Silver is currently quoting at US$8.015 a troy ounce on the Comex division of New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex). Silver on Tuesday December 1, 2004, went close to US$8 a troy ounce, a point it last moved past on its way to touching a 17-year high of US$8.43 in April 2004. Silver hit an intra-day high of US$7.95 a troy ounce before settling at US$7.92/US$7.95 at the close of London trading.

Dollar boost for base metals

Gold was not the only beneficiary from the fall in the US dollar, base metals such as copper, lead, zinc and nickel too moved higher. However, aluminium prices continued to fall further. The three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) ended at US$3,114 a ton on Tuesday December 1, 2004. Lead, zinc and nickel recorded marginal gain in their prices. Aluminium prices, however, slipped by US$7 to close the day at US$1,832 a ton.

Spot rubber ends steady

Lack of purchasing activity from the covering groups and purchase agents, tied down the spot rubber prices to their previous close level. The physical rubber price of per kg RSS 4 was Rs50 (50.25); RSS 5 Rs48.75 (48.75); ungraded Rs46.50 (46.50); ISNR 20 Rs49.25 (49.25); latex 60% Rs37.50 (37.50). Meanwhile, the NMCE futures continued its downfall quoting the December delivery at Rs51.12 against Rs51.27 a kg with moderate volumes. The near month January delivery was quoted at Rs51.85 (52.36), February delivery at Rs52.60 (53.33) and March delivery at Rs53.65 (54.38) per kg for RSS 4. A strong yen and reports on improving rubber supply in Thailand continued to hammer the international markets. At TOCOM, the January futures for RSS 3 closed at 123.5 yen against 123.2 yen.

Soybean rust affects more states in US

The Asian rust disease seems fast spreading across US with Tennessee, ninth state, being tested positive. Soybean rust, the highly contagious disease, has rapidly swept across the US South and is taking aim at big Midwest farming states, according to officials. The airborne fungus, which can slash soybean crop production by up to 80%, has steadily spread since it was first discovered in Louisiana on November 10, 2004. The US Agriculture Department has confirmed soybean rust in farm fields in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Missouri and South Carolina.

Commodity

Exchange

Expiry

LTP

PCP

% change

Traded Quantity

Open Interest

Gold

MCX

03-Dec-04

6528.00

6639.00

-1.67

2813000 GRMS

670.00 GRMS

MCX

04-Feb-05

6588.00

6619.00

-0.47

8305000 GRMS

2,390.00 GRMS

MCX

05-Apr-05

6581.00

6595.00

-0.21

20000 GRMS

73.00 GRMS

MCX

03-Dec-04

6528.00

6635.00

-1.61

40500 GRMS

29.40 GRMS

MCX

31-Jan-05

6589.00

6615.00

-0.39

44000 GRMS

55.40 GRMS

NCDEX

19-Nov-04

6622.00

6596.00

0.39

460400 GRMS

722100 GRMS

NCDEX

20-Dec-04

6601.00

6589.00

0.18

136800 GRMS

334300 GRMS

NCDEX

20-Jan-05

6601.00

6598.00

0.05

46000 GRMS

71600 GRMS

Silver

MCX

03-Dec-04

11610.00

11735.00

-1.07

3535 KGS

1.64 KGS

MCX

28-Feb-05

11620.00

11641.00

-0.18

6455 KGS

4.86 KGS

MCX

05-May-05

11541.00

11596.00

-0.47

25 KGS

0.06 KGS

NCDEX

19-Nov-04

11819.00

11653.00

1.42

215715 KGS

129715 KGS

NCDEX

20-Dec-04

11770.00

11622.00

1.27

45565 KGS

51105 KGS

NCDEX

20-Jan-05

11765.00

11611.00

1.33

9615 KGS

12885 KGS

Soybean

MCX

15-Dec-04

411.40

408.00

0.83

11610000 KGS

7,510.00 KGS

MCX

14-Jan-05

408.70

405.90

0.69

4520000 KGS

5,370.00 KGS

MCX

15-Feb-05

407.10

405.50

0.39

390000 KGS

820.00 KGS

NCDEX

19-Nov-04

407.80

411.00

-0.78

6480000 KGS

14230000 KGS

NCDEX

20-Dec-04

405.80

408.70

-0.71

4010000 KGS

10420000 KGS

NCDEX

20-Jan-05

406.40

406.15

0.06

570000 KGS

3330000 KGS

Exchange Rates

$/Rs

$/Euro

$/Pound

As on Nov 29, 2004

44.53000

0.75222

0.52329

Disclaimer: We take due care in compilation of data, but under no circumstances shall we be legally responsible for the outcome of any action taken on the basis of information given in this newsletter. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advisors as they believe necessary.Indiainfoline takes no legal responsibility for accuracy or completeness of information or advice given. This material is for personal use only."India Infoline Ltd (IIL) and India Infoline Commodities Pvt. Ltd (IICPL) do not have any positions in any of the commodities recommended and which are currently displayed on the site www.indiainfoline.com and www.5paisa.com. IIL and IICPL do not do any deals on their own account (proprietary trading) except for testing and demonstration purposes. IIL and IICPL also has an internal compliance manual in place which restricts the team who analyze and gives information on various commodities and investment opportunities, to place orders on commodity futures only through IICPL and only after the said recommendation has been displayed on the above mentioned websites

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