Daily news letter                                                                                                                            December 09, 2004

Gold, silver plunges sharply

Gold and silver prices recorded their sharpest fall in the recent past after surging past 16-years high. Recovery in the dollar witnessed traders running for covering profit in the international markets. Gold for February delivery traded as low as US$435 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange before closing at US$438.70, down US$15, or 3.3%-- a level not seen since November 11, 2004. Silver too ended sharply lower. March silver dropped 74 cents, or 9.4%, to close at US$7.145 an ounce, the lowest in about a month. In the domestic bullion markets gold and silver prices declined on sustained selling by stockiest amid weak international advice. Standard gold declined by Rs50 at Rs6495. Silver ready was lower by another Rs190 at Rs11,650 per kilo.

Oil rises on dollar recovery

Crude oil price rose by the end of trading session as dollar gathered strength. Also, the US Government released report on Wednesday December 8, 2004, suggesting less than expected increase in heating oil and diesel inventories. Apparently, Brent futures for January delivery moved up 42 cents at US$38.69 a barrel in London. January light crude was up 48 cents at US$41.94 by the close in New York.

The Energy Information Administration of US reported distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 1.4m barrels to 119.3m barrels last week. Commercial crude inventories edged upwards by 600,000 barrels last week to 293.9m barrels, while gasoline supplies rose by 2.4m barrels to 208.1m barrels. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, the most powerful member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, is in favor of raising global oil stocks before OPEC would have to cut production.

Base metals remain weak

The downslide in select base metal prices continued in international as well as local wholesale non-ferrous metal market on stockiest selling and lost further ground. Copper was quoted below US$2,900 per ton on LME after scaling above US$3,200 last week. Other metals too turned weak due to lack of demand. Strengthening in dollar further aggravated the situation at metal complex.

In the domestic markets, Tin ingot remained weak for want of support and lost another Rupee at Rs525 per kilo for want of support. Zinc slab in thin trading quoted 50 paisa lower at Rs72 per kilo. Meanwhile, nickel plate remained flat at Rs740-860 per kilo.

Rubber recovers on frenzied buying

Pickup in the buying steadied the domestic rubber prices that had turned edgy in the recent times. On Wednesday, December 8 2004 rubber markets across the globe began to lookup. Covering groups were seen more active but keen not to enhance the quotations. Sellers were waiting for a recovery from current levels and RSS 4 closed at Rs50.00 a kg as on the previous day. The NMCE futures showed a positive trend. The December delivery was quoted at Rs51.35 (51.26), January delivery at Rs52.50(52.26), February delivery at Rs53.79 (53.37) and March delivery at Rs54.54 (54.41) per kg for RSS 4.The volumes also improved on fresh buying and short covering from traders.

Basmati prices may rise further

Basmati rice prices are poised to rise by Rs7-8 per kg quality-wise in the next three months, mainly in anticipation of lower crop and steady export demand. Prominent basmati varieties are Super, Pusa, Basmati-386 and 370. In the recent times the land under rice cultivation has come down considerably as farmers are seen opting for cash crops.

Daily Statistics

Commodity

Exchange

Expiry

LTP

PCP

% change

Traded Quantity

Open Interest

Gold

MCX

04-Feb-05

6338.00

6509.00

-2.63

14904000 GRMS

3,322.00 GRMS

MCX

05-Apr-05

6364.00

6520.00

-2.39

55000 GRMS

75.00 GRMS

MCX

04-Jun-05

6435.00

6522.00

-1.33

4000 GRMS

11.00 GRMS

MCX

31-Jan-05

6344.00

6516.00

-2.64

195300 GRMS

113.70 GRMS

MCX

05-Apr-05

6335.00

6547.00

-3.24

4600 GRMS

4.20 GRMS

NCDEX

20-Dec-04

6350.00

6528.00

-2.73

1223700 GRMS

690000 GRMS

NCDEX

20-Jan-05

6353.00

6519.00

-2.55

680200 GRMS

425900 GRMS

NCDEX

18-Feb-05

6352.00

6531.00

-2.74

143800 GRMS

129800 GRMS

Silver

MCX

28-Feb-05

10902.00

11674.00

-6.61

18290 KGS

7.89 KGS

MCX

05-May-05

11209.00

11663.00

-3.89

180 KGS

0.10 KGS

MCX

05-Jul-05

11082.00

11502.00

-3.65

30 KGS

0.02 KGS

NCDEX

20-Dec-04

10841.00

11722.00

-7.52

446315 KGS

90580 KGS

NCDEX

20-Jan-05

10845.00

11701.00

-7.32

200215 KGS

62405 KGS

NCDEX

18-Feb-05

10847.00

11695.00

-7.25

59635 KGS

22980 KGS

Soybean

MCX

15-Dec-04

405.50

407.30

-0.44

2730000 KGS

4,810.00 KGS

MCX

14-Jan-05

402.20

403.30

-0.27

7380000 KGS

7,920.00 KGS

MCX

15-Feb-05

400.40

401.80

-0.35

510000 KGS

1,410.00 KGS

MCX

15-Mar-05

401.00

402.00

-0.25

20000 KGS

80.00 KGS

NCDEX

20-Dec-04

405.30

406.40

-0.27

5240000 KGS

12430000 KGS

NCDEX

20-Jan-05

402.50

403.65

-0.28

6490000 KGS

11790000 KGS

NCDEX

18-Feb-05

400.95

402.20

-0.31

1110000 KGS

5100000 KGS

Exchange Rates

$/Rs

$/Euro

$/Pound

As on Dec 08, 2004

43.68000

0.74471

0.51398

Disclaimer: We take due care in compilation of data, but under no circumstances shall we be legally responsible for the outcome of any action taken on the basis of information given in this newsletter. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advisors as they believe necessary.Indiainfoline takes no legal responsibility for accuracy or completeness of information or advice given. This material is for personal use only."India Infoline Ltd (IIL) and India Infoline Commodities Pvt. Ltd (IICPL) do not have any positions in any of the commodities recommended and which are currently displayed on the site www.indiainfoline.com and www.5paisa.com. IIL and IICPL do not do any deals on their own account (proprietary trading) except for testing and demonstration purposes. IIL and IICPL also has an internal compliance manual in place which restricts the team who analyze and gives information on various commodities and investment opportunities, to place orders on commodity futures only through IICPL and only after the said recommendation has been displayed on the above mentioned websites

© All Rights Reserved to India Infoline Commodities Pvt Ltd.
About Us | Contact us  
Bldg. No. 24, Nirlon Complex, Off W E Highway, Goregaon(E), Mumbai-400 063. Tel.: +(91 22) 5677 5900 Fax: +(91 22) 2685 0451