Daily news letter                                                                                                                            December 22, 2004

Gold declines as dollar strengthens

Gold futures in the international bullion markets ended lower as US dollar was seen strengthening against leading currencies of the world. However, the yellow metal managed to float above US$440 per troy ounce levels. Gold for February delivery closed at US$442.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 70 cents. In London, Gold for immediate delivery fell US$1.51 to US$442.48 an ounce. Gold has gained 8% in the past three months as the dollar has fallen the same amount against the euro. In the domestic bullion markets spot gold prices ended marginally lower. Standard gold was down Rs10 to Rs6,400 per 10 gm.

Crude moves in narrow ranges

Crude oil futures moved in narrow ranges amidst thin trading session on Tuesday, December 21, 2004. Lower distillate inventories and demand from China has fuelled resurgence in crude oil prices. Brent crude for February delivery was down 8 cents to US$42.37a barrel by the close of trade in London. At one point in time the crude had slid to US$41.80. The Nymex WTI contract in New York inched up in early trading but settled down 2 cents at US$45.76 a barrel.

KFDA to accept EIC certification

The Korean Food and Drug Administration (KFDA) has agreed to accept the Export Inspection Council (EIC) of India certification of agricultural and food products exported to the Republic of Korea. EIC is an autonomous statutory body under Ministry of Commerce and Industry constituted for the sound development of export trade of India through quality control and inspection and other related matters. It performs these activities through the five Export Inspection Agencies (EIAs), one each at Chennai, Delhi, Kochi, Kolkata and Mumbai. KFDA is a food import regulatory agency of Korea which verifies through the process of laboratory testing, whether the food products imported into the Korean market meet the standard and specifications laid down under their Food Sanitation Act (Food Code or Food Additive Code).

Centre plans major agriculture growth

Centre has decided to launch a major progarmme for long term growth in agriculture. The Government would also initiate efforts for efficient use of available water and stress needs for increasing flow of credit to agriculture sector. At the conference of state agriculture minister, that was called by union agriculture minister Mr Sharad Pawar, various issues were taken for discussion and it was decided that various issues to be given top priorities including agriculture sector growth, financing, water resources etc.

Inaugurating the Conference, Agriculture Minister Mr Pawar emphasized the urgent need to raise farm productivity, especially in the vast rainfed areas.

At the conference it was decided to use of the mega-projects and programmes being launched to generate fast growth and vibrancy in the agriculture sector.

Mr Pawar pointed out that, if Indian GDP is to grow by 8% a year, agriculture must increase by at least 4% which is not possible without major initiatives and focused approach. With 60% of the cultivated area depending on rainfall, rainfed agriculture needs urgent attention. Besides crop farming, stress would need to be laid on promoting livestock farming, horticulture, fodder plantation and grassland development.

Mr Pawar emphasized upon efficient use of available water and the need to adopt drip irrigation, sprinklers in a big way. He assured that the Government would soon bring a scheme to promote these techniques.

Stressing the need for increasing flow of credit to agriculture, Mr Pawar called upon NABARD and RBI to come out with an affordable interest-rate structure for this sector. He informed that agricultural credit has risen from about Rs370bn at this time last year to nearly Rs630bn this year. He informed that Agriculture and Finance Ministries are having talks on how to make agricultural credit more affordable to farmers.

The Minister urged the State Ministers to benefit from the four programmes/projects being initiated by the Centre for the remaining three years of the X Plan.

While addressing the conference, Mr Pawar said the Government would soon launch the National Horticulture Mission to double horticultural production in eight years and create necessary marketing and processing infrastructure. The outlay for the Mission for the remaining period of the present Plan is Rs.650bn. The Government would also launch a Rs760bn project on micro-irrigation (use of drip irrigation and sprinklers) in the present Plan. For the proposed dryland farming project, Rs21.5bn are to be spent in the next three years. A National Mission on Bamboo is also proposed for promoting bamboo cultivation and supporting its marketing and processing, with an outlay of Rs5bn in the present Plan.

Rubber prices firm up on supply crunch

Short supply and covering groups chasing sheet rubber helped harden rubber prices. Ungraded rubber and ISNR 20 recovered partially from early losses, as the purchases from the north Indian sector were moderate. The rubber futures were almost steady at NMCE. The January delivery was quoted at Rs54.10 (53.07), February delivery at Rs55.20 (55.26), March delivery at Rs56.30 (56.36) and April delivery at Rs57.60 (57.66) per kg for RSS 4. At TOCOM, the January futures for RSS 3 declined further to 123.5 yen from 124.2 yen a kg, while the same grade closed weak at Rs52.08 against previous close of Rs52.58 a kg. Spot market rates (a kg) were - RSS 4: Rs52.75 (52.50); RSS 5: Rs50 (49.50); ungraded Rs48.50 (48.25); ISNR 20: Rs50.50 (50); latex 60%: Rs40 (40).

Comm Daily 21st Dec (Tuesday)

MCX

Open

High

Low

Close

%ge Change

Volume Traded

Open Interest

Gold Feb

6377

6377

6356

6367

-0.16

1987

3802

Gold April

6375

6375

6367

6372

-0.05

22

81

Silver March

10486

10512

10440

10505

0.18

266910

23610

Silver May

10524

10524

10465

10495

-0.28

60

330

Ref Soy Oil Jan

392.9

396.2

392.2

396

0.79

17070

9590

Ref Soy Oil Feb

390.9

394.5

390.9

394

0.79

1700

3570

Kapas April

333

334.5

332.9

334.1

0.33

652

7568


NCDEX

Open

High

Low

Close

%ge Change

Volume Traded

Open Interest

Castor Jan

322.8

327.6

322.5

327

1.30

1770

4120

Castor Feb

321.2

325.4

321

322.9

0.53

920

2680

Soya Bean Jan

1308.85

1315

1307

1313.7

0.37

13720

63050

Soya Bean Feb

1311

1318

1309.65

1314.55

0.27

16160

118080

Guar Gum Jan

3885

3895

3551

3644

-6.20

12720

13475

Guar Gum Feb

4000

4000

3626

3730

-6.75

11635

6900

Guar Seed Jan

1473

1475

1372

1397

-5.16

338200

101530

Guar Seed Feb

1503

1508

1392

1421

-5.46

482230

85890

Disclaimer: We take due care in compilation of data, but under no circumstances shall we be legally responsible for the outcome of any action taken on the basis of information given in this newsletter. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advisors as they believe necessary.Indiainfoline takes no legal responsibility for accuracy or completeness of information or advice given. This material is for personal use only."India Infoline Ltd (IIL) and India Infoline Commodities Pvt. Ltd (IICPL) do not have any positions in any of the commodities recommended and which are currently displayed on the site www.indiainfoline.com and www.5paisa.com. IIL and IICPL do not do any deals on their own account (proprietary trading) except for testing and demonstration purposes. IIL and IICPL also has an internal compliance manual in place which restricts the team who analyze and gives information on various commodities and investment opportunities, to place orders on commodity futures only through IICPL and only after the said recommendation has been displayed on the above mentioned websites

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